- Elon Musk refutes the unilateral risk concerns regarding the SpaceX and Anthropic contract.
- Palihapitiya argues that SpaceX could use termination clauses to raise contract prices.
- The contract between SpaceX and Anthropic includes early termination clauses, which is not new.
- Musk predicts significant growth in SpaceX's annual revenue and emphasizes Anthropic's position in the computational contract.
Elon Musk on Sunday refuted claims regarding the existence of unilateral risk in the computational contract between SpaceX and Anthropic, as venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya pointed out that the company could leverage termination clauses to charge the AI lab more. "It's bidirectional. If computing resources become abundant and prices drop, SpaceX's revenue will decline. Neither party needs to cry in this gamble," Musk responded to Palihapitiya's comments on the X platform on Sunday night, sharing relevant clips from AI commentator Rohan Paul.
Impact of Termination Clauses
In a podcast released on Sunday, Palihapitiya stated that either party could terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice. He argued that if data center supply becomes tight, SpaceX could exercise this option and raise the contract price to two to three times its current level, leaving Anthropic with little choice but to accept. He described this as a "king's move," according to reports from BigGo Finance.
The clause itself is not new. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO filings in May that Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion per month for dedicated capacity for its Colossus cluster until May 2029, totaling nearly $45 billion, with both parties able to terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice, as previously reported by Teslarati. Similar exit conditions are present in SpaceX's subsequent computational contracts with Google and Reflection AI.
Political Context's Impact on Computational Capacity
The current political context has changed. Palihapitiya's theory is based on the incoming Democratic governor withdrawing tax incentives for data centers and slowing new constructions. In Texas, elected governor Gina Hinojosa has made the suspension of new data center approvals a campaign issue, while analysts at Deutsche Bank warned last week that SpaceX's computational capacity in Texas may face delays.
Market Reaction and Future Projections
Following the midterm election results, the stock prices of SpaceX and Tesla both saw declines. A market slowdown would benefit companies that already possess computational capacity. SpaceX acquired xAI in February and has begun leasing data center space to external AI labs before needing Grok's data center space in the future. At the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Musk stated that SpaceX could generate $50 billion in annual revenue, considering a $35 billion investment, and that it could activate a data center in eight to nine months, while competitors would take two and a half years.
Musk also indicated that SpaceX expects its annual revenue to exceed $100 billion by December, forecasting it could reach $500 billion by December 2027 as a "best guess." Musk's response highlighted another aspect of the clause. Anthropic has large computational contracts with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, and if the activation of these computational capacities outpaces the slowdown of new construction, the AI lab would have its leverage to renegotiate or exit.
Musk has previously referred to Anthropic as "clearly the leader in the AI space" and it remains one of SpaceX's largest computational customers. According to data from Stocktwits, SpaceX's stock price rose over 2% in Sunday evening trading, closing at $134.27 (approximately HK$1,047) on Friday.
Connection Between Contract Risks and Market Dynamics
Musk's response underscores the existence of bidirectional risks in the contract and points out that changes in the market environment could affect the collaboration between SpaceX and Anthropic. As data center supply tightens and the political context shifts, the flexibility of the contract becomes particularly important. Additionally, Musk's revenue forecasts reflect his confidence in market demand, which could influence investor sentiment and market performance.