- Elon Musk questions NASA's estimate of Starship launches, believing the actual number will be less than half.
- The NASA safety team pointed out that the refueling process is a major risk for Artemis IV.
- SpaceX plans to establish a space refueling station to support Starship's lunar mission.
- Musk's assumptions about a more capable rocket diverge from NASA's estimates.
Elon Musk is disputing the estimate from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) safety team regarding how many Starship launches are necessary to send astronauts to the Moon, asserting that the actual number will be less than half of what the team proposed. Last Thursday, NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, pointed out that the refueling process for SpaceX's lunar lander is a major risk for Artemis IV, which is scheduled to send a crew to the Moon in 2028.
He stated, "We need to pay close attention to the multiple refuels required for the lander." According to a report by Ars Technica, Precourt mentioned, "I think the final estimate is about 22 flights." Ars Technica's Eric Berger posted this comment on the X platform and received a response from Musk. "That number is too high," Musk wrote. "The actual number is more like 6 to 8."
NASA's Estimate of Launches
This disagreement stems from a fundamental issue: sending a large spacecraft like Starship to the Moon. Starship consumes nearly all of its propellant by the time it reaches Earth orbit, necessitating a stop to refuel before heading to the Moon. SpaceX's solution is to establish a space refueling station. First, a Starship acting as a storage tank is launched into orbit, referred to as the storage station. Then a series of refueling Starships are launched one at a time to dock with the storage station and pump the remaining propellant into it.
Once the storage station is full, the lunar lander version of Starship is launched, docks, refuels, and then heads to the Moon. Each refueling trip counts as a complete rocket launch, which is why the count is so crucial. More launches mean more time, increased costs, and a higher chance of encountering issues before astronauts leave Earth.
Berger estimates that even if SpaceX achieves a rate of two Starship launches per week by the end of 2027, it would still take about three months to fill one storage station based on the panel's numbers. The number of refueling ships needed primarily depends on how much propellant each can carry to orbit and how much is lost in the process. Starship's fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely low temperatures, and during the wait to enter orbit, some fuel will slowly evaporate. More propellant is lost during each transfer.
Musk's Assumptions vs. NASA's Estimates
NASA appears to be working based on Starship's current payload capacity, while Musk's range assumes a more capable rocket. Musk has previously opposed higher counts as well. In 2021, when government documents suggested 16 launches, he called it "highly unlikely" and stated that a maximum of eight refueling ships would be needed. Much of the answer depends on hardware that SpaceX has yet to complete. As Teslarati pointed out earlier this year, the company plans to use an upgraded V3 Starship for the refueling process, while Precourt described Artemis IV as "having a lot of firsts."
He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's team for clearing obstacles for SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.
Challenges and Solutions for Starship's Lunar Mission
The main challenge facing Starship's lunar mission lies in the complexity of the refueling process. The differences in estimates between Musk and NASA reflect varying views on technical capabilities. SpaceX plans to address this issue by establishing a space refueling station, which would not only reduce the number of launches required but also lower costs and risks. As technology advances, future launch plans may become more efficient, but many technical challenges still need to be overcome.