Nuclear war and malicious AI listed as top of 17 major threats to human health over next 75 years

According to the latest global assessment report, the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Health Threats states that nuclear war and the malicious use of artificial intelligence have become the top of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, and both threats carry a low risk of causing human extinction before 2100. The report emphasizes that all threats interact and must be addressed together, and notes that "there are practical action pathways for each threat." Commission co-chair Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said: "Decisions made by leaders today will affect the health and well-being of the next generation."

Risks of artificial intelligence and nuclear war

The commission modeled the potential health loss years for each threat based on current trends, a metric known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). To be included on the list, a threat must have potential solutions. The report states that "malicious use of artificial intelligence, including biological weapons, and nuclear famine triggered by nuclear conflict, pose extinction risks within the next 75 years." Although the likelihood of these risks remains low, nuclear conflict could inject sufficient particulates into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and trigger famine, while AI could be used to create biological weapons.

An accompanying Lancet editorial warns that if these threats materialize, the damage they cause would "bring a catastrophe to humanity."

Overview of major catastrophic threats

Other risks believed to cause more than 1 billion disability-adjusted life years are termed "major catastrophic threats," including air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, child malnutrition, climate collapse, conventional conflict, reduced foreign aid, obesity, poor mental health, and naturally occurring pandemics. In high-income regions, non-communicable diseases such as obesity and mental health problems dominate, while in low-income regions, low education levels are the primary driver. Many major donor countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have announced significant cuts to aid spending over the past year. The commission found that a collapse or sharp reduction in international health aid could cause up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100, with nearly 70% occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that also bears the burden of child malnutrition.

Regarding climate change, the report modeled best- and worst-case scenarios. If global warming is limited to about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 degrees Celsius) rather than allowing it to rise to 7.9 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 degrees Celsius), 189 million years of healthy life loss could be prevented. Commission member Ibrahim Abubakar, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said the goal is not to scare people but to help policymakers understand the threats they face and their potential impacts. They should recognize the degree to which action can actually make a difference.

The commission's 35 members began work three years ago, initially anticipating three major threats: conflict, climate, and pandemics. Murray urged governments to allocate funding and personnel for forecasting, prevention, and preparedness. The authors call on leaders to address risks before they escalate into crises, including investing in technological innovation and strengthening health systems. The report's findings will be shared on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin and will be updated annually.

How to address the challenges of future health threats

The report states that nuclear war and the malicious use of artificial intelligence are major threats to future human health, reflecting the close link between current technological development and global security. As technology advances, the risk of malicious use also increases, requiring policymakers to take timely action to prevent potential crises. Additionally, reductions in international health aid could exacerbate global health problems, particularly in low-income regions. These challenges demand that governments prioritize resource allocation and strengthen health system resilience to address future health threats.