- Chinese military scientists believe large naval guns can counter drone swarms.
- Research models show a single shell can produce numerous fragments, boosting attack efficiency.
- Guns need to be combined with detection systems to effectively counter drone threats.
- Trump's warship plan faces scrutiny, particularly regarding its ability to counter modern threats.
Donald Trump's proposed fleet of warships has drawn plenty of ridicule, yet an unexpected voice from China has given serious consideration to a part of this concept. Chinese military scientists argue that large naval guns could help warships defend against drone swarms. Their research focuses on using exploding shells to scatter fragments across a wide area, an idea that aligns with ongoing debates within the US Navy. Modern warships rely heavily on advanced systems like missiles and lasers, but cheap drones may force navies to reconsider how they use ammunition in large-scale attacks.
China Tests Anti-Drone Artillery
China has tested anti-drone artillery, with Wang Lei and his team researching how to use large-caliber guns to attack swarms of small unmanned weapons. Their model treats the shell as an area weapon rather than a single-target munition. In their scenario, researchers used 30 Russian-made Lancet-3 cruise munitions, each drone weighing about 26 pounds and capable of carrying a maximum payload of 6.6 pounds. In the model, a single shell produces 2,000 fragments, with researchers estimating that 1,589 of these fragments could cause damage. Their calculations suggest a 3.95% probability of damage to any individual drone.
In a swarm of 30 drones, a single shell could therefore damage about 1.19 drones. The model assumes the fragment cloud expands 49 feet around the explosion, a premise that allows the gun to attack multiple drones without needing a precise hit.
Integration of Guns with Modern Defense Systems
Guns can complement laser weapons, with researchers not viewing guns as a standalone solution. They emphasize that detection and tracking are key components of the system. Fire control technology also needs to precisely guide each shot, with programmable fuzes helping the shell explode at the right moment as it approaches the drone swarm. The team also proposes combining naval guns with electronic warfare and laser defense, a layered approach that could create a multi-layered defense for warships. This concept is important because drones may create an awkward cost-exchange, where a relatively cheap unmanned weapon forces defenders to consider expensive interceptors.
Trump's warship plan faces scrutiny. Trump's proposed golden fleet includes new Trump-class warships, designed to carry nine large naval guns and extensive missile capabilities. According to the proposed design, these ships would also be equipped with electromagnetic weapons. However, critics question whether such large platforms are logical in the face of modern missile and drone threats. Military analysts have long warned of the vulnerability of battleships, with aircraft, submarines, and missiles repeatedly challenging large surface combatants.
Questions About the Artillery Concept
China's defense community is also skeptical about the artillery concept. A weapons expert expressed disappointment with the study, calling it a promotion-driven paper. He pointed out that the research failed to prove that large-caliber guns could reliably defeat drone swarms. The US Navy reportedly plans to build 15 Trump-class warships between 2028 and 2056, but funding and shipbuilding capacity may still affect this plan. Congress has removed funding for the program from the pending Senate appropriations bill, and US shipyards face a shortage of skilled labor, which could complicate the construction process.
This leaves a larger question unanswered: can giant guns become an economical drone defense, or will they become another expensive solution to a cheap threat?
The study has been published in the Chinese peer-reviewed journal "Command Control & Simulation."
The Potential of Large Guns for Drone Defense
The concept of large naval guns is gaining attention against the backdrop of the growing threat of drones. While the research shows that guns can effectively produce fragments to attack drones, their practical application still needs to consider the synergy with other defense systems. In particular, as drone technology advances, it remains to be seen whether traditional guns can continue to effectively counter these cheap threats. This also reflects the evolving challenges of military technology and the need to rethink defense strategies.