SpaceX will announce its third-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday and will host a live stream on the X platform at 4:30 PM Eastern Time. Tesla will follow up the next day. According to consensus estimates from Bloomberg, SpaceX's revenue is expected to reach $12.89 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted earnings per share close to US$0.15 (approximately HK$1). This would represent a growth of about 65% compared to the second quarter and mark SpaceX's first profitable quarter since its initial public offering (IPO).
Analysts estimate that revenue from artificial intelligence will be around $6.4 billion, while revenue from Starlink is expected to be about $4.9 billion, with consumer subscriptions projected to reach 14.3 million. Capital expenditure is forecasted at $19.6 billion, with free cash flow nearing negative $11.6 billion. The significance of these figures lies in the fact that SpaceX has spent months working to gain the market's trust.
The company set its record IPO price at US$135 (approximately HK$1,053), which peaked at US$225.64 (approximately HK$1,760) before sliding to around US$105 (approximately HK$819) in early August. Last Friday's closing price was US$146.03 (approximately HK$1,139), about 28% lower than the June peak. The second-quarter report showed revenue of $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscriptions at 12 million, but capital expenditures of $18.4 billion pressured the stock price. Since then, SpaceX has successfully launched Starship on its 14th flight, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and agreed to purchase 800 MHz of spectrum for approximately $8 billion as part of its Starlink
mobile propulsion program and signed a fourth computing hosting agreement worth about $13 billion annually within four months.
SpaceX is expected to achieve profitability and growth in the third quarter
Management's goal is to achieve over 2 gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of the year and to reach an annual revenue run rate of $100 billion. Evercore ISI has raised its target to US$275 (approximately HK$2,145), indicating that this quarter's valuation may be more based on these goals rather than reported numbers. All of this is under the shadow of the Tesla merger. Barclays analyst Dan Levy anticipates that SpaceX will acquire Tesla at a premium all-stock transaction, using reference values of $21 trillion and $15 trillion, and stated that if a vote is to take place at Tesla's annual meeting on December 6, an announcement would need to be made by the end of October or early November.
Barclays estimates that Elon Musk will hold about 37% of the merged company's shares and 56% of the voting rights.
Elon Musk stated in July that the merger discussions could not be addressed during the earnings call, but there have been investor questions on SpaceX's Q&A platform asking when the merger with Tesla will occur, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demonstration has reignited discussions. If the deal goes through, the results on Tuesday will effectively set the price for Tesla holders. Their shares will convert into SpaceX stock while also gaining access to a company heavily invested in artificial intelligence, with Tesla expected to exceed $25 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.
A strong quarter and more stable expenditures would facilitate this exchange, while another round of heavy capital expenditures and declining stock prices would complicate it.